Why Speculative Real Estate Investing is Risky Right Now

Josh Perez • June 30, 2025

In the past, buying new builds—whether they were single-family homes, condos, or single-rental units—seemed like a straightforward path to wealth. The strategy was simple: buy a property for $500,000, sit tight for a couple of years, and hope it's worth $700,000. That appreciation alone was expected to outweigh the negative cash flow of a few hundred or even a couple thousand dollars a month.


But here’s the reality: that approach isn’t investing—it’s speculating. And right now, it's more dangerous than ever.

When you're banking on appreciation without solid fundamentals to back it up, you’re gambling, not building wealth. If you're losing $1,500 to $2,000 a month in negative cash flow, and then factor in high transaction costs just to sell, you could easily find yourself in a negative equity position. That’s not a sustainable or sound investment strategy.


Don’t get me wrong—many people have built portfolios this way. But let’s be honest: those wins were mostly driven by market timing, not by investing skill or creating actual value. In today’s market, that margin for error has disappeared. Interest rates, inflation, and uncertain demand have all changed the game.


It’s time we stopped pretending that hope is a strategy. Real estate investing should be based on fundamentals—cash flow, equity growth through forced appreciation or renovations, and smart financing—not just the blind hope that property values will rise.


If you're in this to build long-term wealth, you need to evaluate deals with clear-eyed realism. Know your numbers. Understand your exit strategy. And above all, avoid speculating on appreciation alone.



Because as I said in a recent conversation:
 "It's just really dangerous right now, and I think a lot of people are noticing that it's not really a fundamentally sound strategy to real estate investing."


Let’s focus on building smart, resilient portfolios that can weather the ups and downs—without depending on luck.

— Josh Perez

"It's just really dangerous right now, and I think a lot of people are noticing that it's not really a fundamentally sound strategy to real estate investing."

Josh Perez
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What You Need to Know About Mortgages and Parental Leave

By Josh Perez • July 8, 2026
If the title of this article caught your attention, chances are your family is growing. Congratulations. If you’re thinking now is the right time to move into a home that better fits your growing family—but you’re unsure how parental leave affects your ability to qualify for a mortgage—you’re in the right place. Here’s the good news. Qualifying for a mortgage while on parental leave is possible when it’s done correctly. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, lenders can often qualify you based on your return-to-work income , as long as you can provide documentation confirming you have guaranteed employment waiting for you. A word of caution If you walk into a bank branch and disclose that you’re currently on parental leave, there’s a chance the bank will only allow you to qualify using your parental leave income. That can significantly reduce your borrowing power. Parental leave income is typically limited to 55% of your previous earnings, up to a weekly maximum. Qualifying on that amount alone can restrict your options and impact the type of home you can purchase. Why lender choice matters One of the biggest advantages of working with an independent mortgage professional is choice . You’re not limited to one lender’s rules or products. Some lenders will allow you to qualify using 100% of your confirmed return-to-work income , which can make a meaningful difference in your approval amount and overall options. What you’ll need to qualify Most lenders will require an employment letter that includes: Employer name (preferably on company letterhead) Your job title Original start date (to confirm probation has been completed) Confirmed return-to-work date Guaranteed salary upon return Lenders want reassurance that your income will resume once parental leave ends. You may also be asked to provide income history from the past couple of years, which is standard for most mortgage applications. One important note Whether or not you actually return to work after parental leave is entirely your decision. From a mortgage perspective, qualification is based on having a confirmed position available to you at the time of approval. If you have questions about qualifying for a mortgage while on parental leave—or anything mortgage-related—please connect anytime. I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you plan with confidence.
Suburban two-story house with a front porch, two-car garage, and a large tree-lined lawn.

Gifted Down Payment in Ontario? Don't Skip This Step

By Josh Perz • July 7, 2026
Using a gifted down payment to buy a home in Ontario? Learn exactly what lenders require — and the common mistakes that can delay or derail your approval.