Why Speculative Real Estate Investing is Risky Right Now

Josh Perez • June 30, 2025

In the past, buying new builds—whether they were single-family homes, condos, or single-rental units—seemed like a straightforward path to wealth. The strategy was simple: buy a property for $500,000, sit tight for a couple of years, and hope it's worth $700,000. That appreciation alone was expected to outweigh the negative cash flow of a few hundred or even a couple thousand dollars a month.


But here’s the reality: that approach isn’t investing—it’s speculating. And right now, it's more dangerous than ever.

When you're banking on appreciation without solid fundamentals to back it up, you’re gambling, not building wealth. If you're losing $1,500 to $2,000 a month in negative cash flow, and then factor in high transaction costs just to sell, you could easily find yourself in a negative equity position. That’s not a sustainable or sound investment strategy.


Don’t get me wrong—many people have built portfolios this way. But let’s be honest: those wins were mostly driven by market timing, not by investing skill or creating actual value. In today’s market, that margin for error has disappeared. Interest rates, inflation, and uncertain demand have all changed the game.


It’s time we stopped pretending that hope is a strategy. Real estate investing should be based on fundamentals—cash flow, equity growth through forced appreciation or renovations, and smart financing—not just the blind hope that property values will rise.


If you're in this to build long-term wealth, you need to evaluate deals with clear-eyed realism. Know your numbers. Understand your exit strategy. And above all, avoid speculating on appreciation alone.



Because as I said in a recent conversation:
 "It's just really dangerous right now, and I think a lot of people are noticing that it's not really a fundamentally sound strategy to real estate investing."


Let’s focus on building smart, resilient portfolios that can weather the ups and downs—without depending on luck.

— Josh Perez

"It's just really dangerous right now, and I think a lot of people are noticing that it's not really a fundamentally sound strategy to real estate investing."

Josh Perez
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Get Unbiased Advice: Work with an Independent Mortgage Pro

By Josh Perez • December 24, 2025
Why Work With an Independent Mortgage Professional? If you’re in the market for a mortgage, here’s the most important thing to know: Working with an independent mortgage professional can save you money and provide better options than dealing directly with a single bank. If that’s all you read—great! But if you’d like to understand why that statement is true, keep reading. The Best Mortgage Isn’t Just About the Lowest Rate It’s easy to fall for slick marketing that promotes ultra-low mortgage rates. But the lowest rate doesn’t always mean the lowest cost . The best mortgage is the one that costs you the least amount of money over time —not just the one with the flashiest headline rate. Things like: Prepayment penalties Portability Flexibility to refinance Amortization structure Fixed vs. variable terms …can all affect the true cost of your mortgage. An independent mortgage professional looks beyond the rate. They’ll help you find a product that fits your unique financial situation , long-term goals, and lifestyle—so you’re not hit with expensive surprises down the road. Save Time (and Your Sanity) Applying for a mortgage can be complicated. Every lender has different rules, documents, and policies—and trying to navigate them all on your own can be time-consuming and frustrating. When you work with an independent mortgage professional: You fill out one application They shop that application across multiple lenders You get expert advice tailored to your needs This means less paperwork , less stress , and more confidence in your options. Get Unbiased Advice That Puts You First Bank specialists work for the bank. Their job is to sell you that bank’s mortgage products—whether or not it’s the best deal for you. Independent mortgage professionals work for you. They’re provincially licensed, and their job is to help you: Compare multiple lenders Understand the fine print Make informed, long-term financial decisions And the best part? Their services are typically free to you . Mortgage professionals are paid a standardized fee by the lender when a mortgage is placed—so you get expert guidance without any out-of-pocket cost. Access More Mortgage Options When you go to your bank, you’re limited to that bank’s mortgage products. When you go to an independent mortgage professional, you get access to: Major banks Credit unions Monoline lenders (who only offer mortgages) Alternative and private lenders (if needed) That’s far more choice , and a much better chance of finding a mortgage that truly fits your needs and goals. The Bottom Line If you want to: Save money over the life of your mortgage Save time by avoiding unnecessary back-and-forth Access more lenders and products Get honest, client-first advice …then working with an independent mortgage professional is one of the smartest decisions you can make. Let’s Make a Plan That Works for You If you're ready to talk about mortgage financing—or just want to explore your options—I'm here to help. Let's connect and put together a strategy that makes sense for your goals and your future. Reach out anytime. I’d be happy to help.

Why High Income Doesn’t Automatically Mean a Bigger Mortgage

By Josh Perez • December 18, 2025
Most people assume a bigger paycheck leads to a bigger mortgage approval. But here’s the truth that surprises almost everyone: “It’s not about how much you earn. It’s about how much of your income is already spoken for.” — Josh Perez I’ve sat across from clients earning six figures who qualified for less than someone making half as much. The problem wasn’t their income. It was their monthly obligations . Lenders Don’t Just Look at Income — They Look at What’s Left Over You can make $200,000 a year, but if $80,000 of it is tied up in payments, lenders see very little room for a mortgage. Here’s what typically eats up that space: Big car loans Multiple credit cards Buy-now-pay-later plans Personal loans Lines of credit Old debts that still report monthly payments These commitments matter because lenders are focused on one main calculation: Debt-to-Income Ratio (DTI) This tells lenders how much of your income is already locked into payments — and how much is available for a mortgage. A high DTI = lower mortgage approval A low DTI = stronger approval and better options It’s that simple. Want to Qualify for More? Do This First Most people think they need to increase their income. The truth? Reducing debt often has a bigger impact — and works faster. 1. Pay down or eliminate high monthly payments Even paying off a single loan can shift your approval dramatically. 2. Avoid taking on new credit before applying Every new payment reduces your borrowing room. 3. Keep your spending stable for 90 days Lenders review recent bank history. Stability helps. 4. Work with a mortgage broker, not just one bank This is one of the biggest ways people leave money on the table. Every lender calculates affordability differently. Some are far more flexible with DTI. If you only go to your bank, you’re only getting one version of your potential approval. Let’s Make Your Approval Work for You If you want to qualify for more, reduce debt strategically, or understand where you stand right now, I can help you build the right plan. Let’s give you access to more options — not just one.