Why Speculative Real Estate Investing is Risky Right Now

Josh Perez • June 30, 2025

In the past, buying new builds—whether they were single-family homes, condos, or single-rental units—seemed like a straightforward path to wealth. The strategy was simple: buy a property for $500,000, sit tight for a couple of years, and hope it's worth $700,000. That appreciation alone was expected to outweigh the negative cash flow of a few hundred or even a couple thousand dollars a month.


But here’s the reality: that approach isn’t investing—it’s speculating. And right now, it's more dangerous than ever.

When you're banking on appreciation without solid fundamentals to back it up, you’re gambling, not building wealth. If you're losing $1,500 to $2,000 a month in negative cash flow, and then factor in high transaction costs just to sell, you could easily find yourself in a negative equity position. That’s not a sustainable or sound investment strategy.


Don’t get me wrong—many people have built portfolios this way. But let’s be honest: those wins were mostly driven by market timing, not by investing skill or creating actual value. In today’s market, that margin for error has disappeared. Interest rates, inflation, and uncertain demand have all changed the game.


It’s time we stopped pretending that hope is a strategy. Real estate investing should be based on fundamentals—cash flow, equity growth through forced appreciation or renovations, and smart financing—not just the blind hope that property values will rise.


If you're in this to build long-term wealth, you need to evaluate deals with clear-eyed realism. Know your numbers. Understand your exit strategy. And above all, avoid speculating on appreciation alone.



Because as I said in a recent conversation:
 "It's just really dangerous right now, and I think a lot of people are noticing that it's not really a fundamentally sound strategy to real estate investing."


Let’s focus on building smart, resilient portfolios that can weather the ups and downs—without depending on luck.

— Josh Perez

"It's just really dangerous right now, and I think a lot of people are noticing that it's not really a fundamentally sound strategy to real estate investing."

Josh Perez
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How a Cleaning Lady Helped Me Buy a 15-Unit Apartment Building

By Josh Perez • June 25, 2025
One of my favorite stories from our early real estate journey starts in the most unexpected way—with a cleaning lady. We were just getting into commercial properties, and one of our first acquisitions was a mixed-use building in Hamilton. Several of the offices in the building had hired a cleaning lady, and I’d often see her coming in and out. She was friendly, always up for a chat, and over time we built a bit of a rapport.  One day, in passing conversation, she casually mentioned something that stopped me in my tracks. She said, “Hey, do you know so-and-so owns that building on the corner? I think they might be open to selling.” That corner building was one of those beautiful, heritage-style properties—the kind you assume would never hit the market. My ears perked up immediately. I asked her to stop whatever she was doing and connect me with them right away. She did. And shortly after, we were on the phone with the property owners. Before the building ever went public, we were deep in negotiations. Now, to be honest, we weren’t exactly ready for a deal of that size. It was a 15-unit residential property, and at the time, we didn’t have all the capital lined up. But here’s where relationships made the difference. The owners were neighbors, they trusted the referral from our cleaning lady, and they were open to working with us. We structured a VTB (vendor take-back mortgage), which gave us the flexibility to close the deal and step into an entirely new tier of real estate investing. That deal changed our trajectory—but more importantly, it changed how I think about opportunity. The biggest lesson I took from that experience? Relationships matter —more than we sometimes realize. The people around you—whether they’re part of your core team, a vendor, or even someone who helps keep your spaces clean—can open doors you didn’t even know existed. Real estate is a people business. And sometimes, your next opportunity starts with a conversation in the hallway.

The Source Of Your Downpayment Matters

By Josh Perez • June 25, 2025
If you’re looking to purchase a property, although you might not think it matters too much, the source of your downpayment means a great deal to the lender. Let’s discuss the lender requirements, what your downpayment tells the lender about your financial situation, a how downpayment helps establish the mortgage loan to value. Anti-money laundering Lenders care about your downpayment source because, legally, they have to. To prevent money laundering, lenders have to document the source of the downpayment on every home purchase. Acceptable forms of downpayment are money from your resources, borrowed funds through an insured program called the FlexDown, or money you receive as a gift from an immediate family member. To prove the funds are from your resources and not laundered money from the proceeds of crime, you’ll be required to provide bank statements showing the money has been in your account for at least 90 days or that you’ve accumulated the funds through payroll deposits or other acceptable means. Now, if you’re borrowing all or part of your downpayment, you’ll need to include the costs of carrying the payments on the borrowed downpayment in your debt service ratios. If you’re the recipient of a gift from a direct family member, you’ll need to provide a signed gift letter indicating that the funds are a true gift and have no schedule for repayment. From there, you’ll need to show the money deposit into your account. Financial suitability Lenders care about the source of the downpayment because it is an indicator that you are financially able to purchase the property. Showing the lender that your downpayment is coming from your resources is the best. This demonstrates that you have positive cash flow and that you’re able to save money and manage your finances in a way that indicates you’ll most likely make your mortgage payments on time. If your downpayment is borrowed or from a gift, there’s a chance that they’ll want to scrutinize the rest of your application more closely. The bigger your downpayment, the better, well, as far as the lender is concerned. The way they see it, there is a direct correlation between how much money you have as equity to the likelihood you will or won’t default on their mortgage. Essentially, the more equity you have, the less likely you will walk away from the mortgage, which lessens their risk. Downpayment establishes the loan to value (LTV) Thirdly, your downpayment establishes the loan to value ratio. The loan to value ratio or LTV is the percentage of the property’s value compared to the mortgage amount. In Canada, a lender cannot lend more than 95% of a property’s value. So, if you’re buying a home for $400k, the lender can lend $380k, and you’re responsible for coming up with 5%, $ 20k in this situation. But you might be asking yourself, how does the source of the downpayment impact LTV? Great question, and to answer this, we have to look at how to establish property value. Simply put, something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it and what someone is willing to sell it for. Of course, within reason, having no external factors coming into play. When dealing with real estate, an appraisal of the property will include comparisons of what other people have agreed to pay for similar properties in the past. You’ll often hear of situations where buyers and sellers try to inflate the sale price to help finalize the transaction artificially. Any scenario where the buyer isn’t coming up with all of the money for the downpayment, independent of the seller, impacts the LTV. All details of a real estate transaction purchase and sale have to be disclosed to the lender. If there’s any money transferring behind the scenes, this impacts the LTV, and the lender won’t proceed with financing. Non-disclosure to the lender is mortgage fraud. So there you have it; hopefully, this provides context to why lenders ask for documents to prove the source of your downpayment. If you’d like to talk about mortgage financing, please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.