Is Now the Right Time to Buy? A Look at Canada's 2026 Housing Market

Josh Perez • March 17, 2026

A Deep Dive into the 2026 Canadian Real Estate Landscape

For many Canadians, the dream of homeownership has felt like a moving target. After years of market volatility, shifting interest rates, and economic uncertainty, you might be wondering: is 2026 finally the year to make a move?

It's the biggest financial question for many households, and the answer isn't a simple yes or no. It depends on your personal circumstances, financial readiness, and where you are in the country. Let's break down the key factors shaping Canada's 2026 housing market so you can decide if now is the right time for you.

The National Picture: A Market in Transition

After a period of correction, Canada's housing market is showing signs of a gradual recovery, but it's not the frenzied pace we saw during the pandemic. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 5.1% increase in home sales in 2026, driven by pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

However, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) notes that sales will likely remain below historical averages, with the market facing headwinds from a slower economy, modest income growth, and elevated unemployment levels.

What to Expect in 2026

  • National Home Sales: Recovery is underway with a 5.1% increase expected, driven by pent-up demand. However, sales will still remain below historical highs as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on buyer confidence.
  • National Average Price: Prices are forecast to rise modestly by 2.8% to $698,881. This represents steady, sustainable growth rather than the sharp spikes we saw during the pandemic years.
  • New Construction: Housing starts are projected to decline as developers face high construction costs, weaker demand, and rising inventories of unsold units. Fewer new homes being built could put upward pressure on prices in the long term.
  • Mortgage Rates: Variable rates are holding steady while fixed rates remain uncertain. The current rate environment offers some stability, but affordability continues to be a key challenge for many buyers.

Interest Rates: The Elephant in the Room

Mortgage rates have been a major factor for homebuyers. The good news is that the Bank of Canada has held its policy interest rate at 2.25% in early 2026, providing some stability for variable-rate mortgages. However, fixed rates may still see some upward pressure.

Many homeowners who secured ultra-low rates during the pandemic are now facing renewals at higher rates, which is tightening household budgets. For new buyers, the current rate environment is a significant improvement from the highs of 2024, but affordability remains a key challenge.

Regional Deep Dive: Where Are the Opportunities?

Canada's housing market is not a monolith. The story is very different depending on where you live.

Ontario & British Columbia: The Rebound

These two provinces, which saw the most significant downturns, are now poised for the strongest rebounds. CREA projects sales to increase by over 8% in both Ontario and BC in 2026. This is largely driven by pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting for prices to stabilize.

However, the CMHC warns that housing starts in Ontario are projected to fall to near two-decade lows, which could put upward pressure on prices in the long run.

The Prairies & Quebec: Steady and Affordable

Markets in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec have remained more stable and are expected to see continued growth, albeit at a more moderate pace. Alberta, in particular, stands out for its relative affordability, with prices well below the national average.

The First-Time Homebuyer Opportunity

If you're a first-time homebuyer, 2026 could present a unique window of opportunity. After years of being priced out, many are finding that the combination of lower prices and stabilized interest rates has brought homeownership back within reach.

Furthermore, the government has introduced several programs to help first-time buyers, including:

  • First-Time Home Buyers' GST/HST Rebate: A new rebate designed to help you recover some of the taxes paid on a new home.
  • Home Buyers' Plan (HBP): The withdrawal limit from your RRSP has been increased to $60,000, giving you more flexibility to fund your down payment.
  • First Home Savings Account (FHSA): A powerful savings tool that allows you to save for a down payment tax-free, helping you build your nest egg faster.

So, Is It Your Time to Buy?

While the market is showing positive signs, the decision to buy a home is deeply personal. Here are a few questions to ask yourself:

  • Is my income stable and secure? Job security is crucial when taking on a mortgage commitment that could last decades.
  • Have I saved a sufficient down payment? A larger down payment not only reduces your mortgage but can also help you avoid costly mortgage insurance.
  • Is my credit score in good shape? Your credit score directly impacts the mortgage rates you'll qualify for and could save you thousands over the life of your loan.
  • Am I prepared for the long-term costs of homeownership? Beyond the mortgage, you'll need to budget for property taxes, maintenance, insurance, and unexpected repairs.

Navigating the housing market can be complex, but you don't have to do it alone. A trusted mortgage professional can help you understand your options, get pre-approved, and determine if now is the right time for you to enter the market.

Ready to explore your options? Let's talk. I can help you make sense of the market and find a mortgage solution that fits your life and your goals.

Josh Perez
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How to Maximize Your Mortgage Renewal Opportunity

By Josh Perez • July 29, 2026
Your Lender Is Not Obligated to Renew Your Mortgage Many homeowners assume that if they’ve made every mortgage payment on time, their lender is automatically required to renew their mortgage at the end of the term. That’s a common belief—but it isn’t true. When you sign a mortgage, you’re agreeing to a contract for a specific term . Once that term ends, the lender has the legal right to either renew the mortgage or call the loan . There is no obligation to offer a renewal. In practice, most lenders do renew mortgages—but certain situations can prevent that from happening. Reasons a Lender May Decline to Renew A lender may choose not to renew if: Mortgage payments were missed during the term A bankruptcy or consumer proposal has occurred There is a separation or divorce Employment or income has changed A borrower on the mortgage has passed away The lender no longer prefers the property’s location or market The lender is no longer licensed to lend in Canada Even one of these factors can change how a lender views the risk. Why This Matters Because renewal is not guaranteed, waiting until the last minute can put you in a difficult position. Understanding this reality early gives you time and control. How to Protect Yourself at Renewal The best approach is to be proactive. Ideally, you should begin reviewing your options 120 days before your mortgage term ends . This gives you enough time to explore alternatives and make informed decisions—rather than reacting under pressure. Even if your current lender offers a renewal, that’s just one option , not automatically the best one. The lender that was right for you years ago may no longer offer the most competitive rate, terms, or flexibility today. The goal at renewal isn’t convenience—it’s reducing your total cost of borrowing and choosing terms that align with your current situation. Why Work With an Independent Mortgage Professional Working with an independent mortgage professional ensures someone is advocating for you , not the lender. Instead of being limited to one set of products, you can compare options across multiple lenders and choose the solution that best protects your interests. Final Thoughts Whether your lender is offering a renewal or not, the smartest move is to review all your options before signing anything. If your mortgage is coming up for renewal—or if you want to plan ahead—feel free to connect anytime. I’d be happy to help you protect your options and make a confident decision.

How Property Type and Condition Influence Mortgage Financing

By Josh Perez • July 22, 2026
Why the Property Matters When You’re Qualifying for a Mortgage When qualifying for a mortgage, lenders typically look at four core areas: Income Credit Down payment or equity The property itself Most buyers focus heavily on income, credit, and savings—and for good reason. But even if those boxes are checked, the property can still determine whether a mortgage is approved. Why Lenders Care About the Property From a lender’s perspective, the property is the collateral for the mortgage. In the unlikely event of default, they need to know the home can be sold quickly and at fair market value to recover their funds. Because of this, lenders are careful about the condition, value, and marketability of any property they finance. Homes that are in poor repair, unconventional, or overpriced can raise red flags—even when the borrower is well qualified. Appraisals Are Always Part of the Process Every mortgage requires an appraisal to confirm value. Insured mortgages (through CMHC, Sagen, or Canada Guaranty) often use an automated valuation model completed online. Conventional mortgages typically require a full, on-site appraisal by a certified appraiser. This appraisal is not optional and happens after an offer is accepted—not at the pre-approval stage. Why Pre-Approvals Aren’t a Guarantee A pre-approval is a great first step, but it only assesses you, not the property. Once you’ve made an offer, the lender must approve the specific home you’re buying. Understanding this upfront helps avoid surprises and confusion later in the process. The Risk of Buying Without a Financing Condition In competitive markets, buyers sometimes remove financing conditions to strengthen their offer. However, this comes with risk. If the appraisal comes back low—or the lender is concerned about the property’s condition—you could be denied financing after the offer is firm. In that scenario, your deposit may be at risk. Buying a Home That Needs Work If you’re considering a property that isn’t in perfect condition, there are solutions. A purchase plus improvements program allows you to buy a home and include renovation costs in your mortgage. The process is structured and requires planning, but it can be an excellent way to turn a fixer-upper into a great long-term investment. Final Thoughts Mortgage approval isn’t based solely on your finances—the property matters just as much. Knowing this ahead of time helps you make smarter offers, reduce risk, and plan more effectively. If you’re buying a property that needs work or want clarity on how a lender may view a specific home, feel free to reach out. I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you plan with confidence.