Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 29th, 2025

Josh Perez • October 29, 2025

Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

October 29, 2025


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.


With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks.


While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.


In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.


Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.


Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady.


The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually.


CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.


With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.


The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026.


Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report


Josh Perez
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Get Unbiased Advice: Work with an Independent Mortgage Pro

By Josh Perez • December 24, 2025
Why Work With an Independent Mortgage Professional? If you’re in the market for a mortgage, here’s the most important thing to know: Working with an independent mortgage professional can save you money and provide better options than dealing directly with a single bank. If that’s all you read—great! But if you’d like to understand why that statement is true, keep reading. The Best Mortgage Isn’t Just About the Lowest Rate It’s easy to fall for slick marketing that promotes ultra-low mortgage rates. But the lowest rate doesn’t always mean the lowest cost . The best mortgage is the one that costs you the least amount of money over time —not just the one with the flashiest headline rate. Things like: Prepayment penalties Portability Flexibility to refinance Amortization structure Fixed vs. variable terms …can all affect the true cost of your mortgage. An independent mortgage professional looks beyond the rate. They’ll help you find a product that fits your unique financial situation , long-term goals, and lifestyle—so you’re not hit with expensive surprises down the road. Save Time (and Your Sanity) Applying for a mortgage can be complicated. Every lender has different rules, documents, and policies—and trying to navigate them all on your own can be time-consuming and frustrating. When you work with an independent mortgage professional: You fill out one application They shop that application across multiple lenders You get expert advice tailored to your needs This means less paperwork , less stress , and more confidence in your options. Get Unbiased Advice That Puts You First Bank specialists work for the bank. Their job is to sell you that bank’s mortgage products—whether or not it’s the best deal for you. Independent mortgage professionals work for you. They’re provincially licensed, and their job is to help you: Compare multiple lenders Understand the fine print Make informed, long-term financial decisions And the best part? Their services are typically free to you . Mortgage professionals are paid a standardized fee by the lender when a mortgage is placed—so you get expert guidance without any out-of-pocket cost. Access More Mortgage Options When you go to your bank, you’re limited to that bank’s mortgage products. When you go to an independent mortgage professional, you get access to: Major banks Credit unions Monoline lenders (who only offer mortgages) Alternative and private lenders (if needed) That’s far more choice , and a much better chance of finding a mortgage that truly fits your needs and goals. The Bottom Line If you want to: Save money over the life of your mortgage Save time by avoiding unnecessary back-and-forth Access more lenders and products Get honest, client-first advice …then working with an independent mortgage professional is one of the smartest decisions you can make. Let’s Make a Plan That Works for You If you're ready to talk about mortgage financing—or just want to explore your options—I'm here to help. Let's connect and put together a strategy that makes sense for your goals and your future. Reach out anytime. I’d be happy to help.

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